Here is another example. Suppose on fourth street that the board is
The pot is multiway, and one player called a raise before the flop, called the bet on the flop, and now raises. What is his hand?
First, notice it is unlikely that this player just has the nut low, even though it is probable that he started with an ace-trey.
Since the pot is being contested multiway, he would fear that he might get quartered. This is why he only called on the flop.
On the turne, he still should be afraid of being quartered, and since a straight card hit, he would not have raised if he had a set.
However, he could have the nut low and a draw at the nut flush. So even though he might get quartered, he also may be able to hog the whole pot if a club hits.
There is a good chance that he holds the ace of clubs, as well as a trey and another club.
Now for a third example. Before the flop, several people limp in, and the pot is then raised by a player in later position.
On the flop, two high cards and two diamonds fall. One of the original limpers, who is in an early position, bets and gets several callers between him and the before-the-flop raiser.
If the before-the-flop raiser now raises again, there is a good chance that he has the nut flush draw.
This would be especially true if he is not the type of player who likes to get a lot of money in the pot before the flop with a high hand.
Consequently, if the before-the-flop raiser plays his high hands fast, it would be conceivable for him to have made a big set.
In fact, this hand would now be more likely than the flush draw.
When you can’t actually put a person on a hand but have reduced his possible holdings to a limited number, you try to use mathematics to determine the chances of his having certain hands rather than others.
Then you decide what kind of hand you must have to continue playing.
Sometimes you can use a mathematical procedure based on Bayes’ Theorem to determine the chances that an opponent has one hand or another.
After deciding on the kinds of hands your opponent would be betting in a particular situation, you determine the probability of your opponent holding each of those hands. Then you compare the probabilities.
Here’s an example. Suppose an extremely loose and aggressive opponent just calls before the flop.
Two high cards flop – which gives you top set – you bet and he calls. On fourth street, an ace hits, which could make a straight, and this player bets into you.
You now must decide whether you should raise or just call. Since your opponent is a loose aggressive player, he is not likely to have made three aces, as he would have raised before the flop.
But he is likely to be betting a hand like aces up.
Therefore, you should raise. If you get reraised, meaning that you are probably against a straight, you have a lot of outs to improve.
On the other hand, if your opponent is tighter and more conservative, he is much more likely to have the straight. Now you should just call.
Knowing it is slightly more likely that your opponent has one kind of holding versus another does not always tell you how you should proceed in the play of your hand.
Nevertheless, the more you know about the chances of an opponent having one hand rather than another when he bets or raises, the easier it is for you to decide whether to fold, call, or raise.
Here’s another example. Suppose you stat with
You raise, and an opponent behind you reraises. The flop comes king high. You check and your opponent bets.
If you think your opponent is as likely to have a hand like ace-deuce-trey as he is to have a pair of aces, you should at least call.
If an ace hits on a later streets and your opponent bets again, you may want to raise if you know this opponent would still bet if he had only two aces.
This is because it is now much more mathematically likely that you have the best hand.
Finally, as this last example shows, you need to complement mathematical conclusions with what you know about a player.
For instance, players almost always will just call if they make a quality low on the flop and then raises on fourth street or fifth street after irrelevant cards hit, he is much more likely to have a quality low than he is to have made a set with one of the seemingly irrelevant cards.
Another factor in reading hands and deciding how to play your own hands is the number of players in the pot.
People tend to play their hands much more straightforwardly in multiway pots.
This is also true when several players are yet to act. So if a player bets in either of these situations, you can be quite sure that he’s got a real hand.
